The Mercury Prize 2009 Final Guesses

Posted on 8th Sep 09 by Nine White Lines | 4

There is a particular air of cynicism about the Mercury Music Prize. Every year, most likely down to the fact that while the winners generally turn out to be the best album on the list, they are overshadowed by being lumped in with a top-heavy number of terribly shit albums. For every Boy In Da Corner, there’s a So Much For The City. For every Bring It On, an International Velvet. For every It’s Not Me, It’s You, there’s… oh.

Of course Lily Allen is one of a few artists that have been conspicuously avoided by the Mercury Panel, along with Empire Of The Sun, U2, Late Of The Pier, Doves, Jarvis Cocker and him to name but a few. Arguably, none of those need/deserve the specific recognition that a Mercury nomination would bring. Should we analyse and reassess the songwriting magnificence of each album that has made the grade in the run-up to tonight’s announcement? No, that decision is not up to anyone watching from afar. Instead, let’s study each artist’s chances in pseudo-Top Trumps style.

Bat For Lashes – Two Suns

Is It Any Good? It’s a clever jigsaw of pop pieces that fit together to make an emotional, interesting and highly potable listen. 8/10

Do They Love This Shit? Not terribly. Out of the 17 winners so far, only two have been female solo artists (Ms. Dynamite & PJ Harvey). But as cross-cultural female singer-songwriter multi-instrumentalist with a critically acclaimed, top 5-charting concept album that’s not her debut, it wouldn’t look like the panel are jumping on a hype bandwagon. 7/10

Much Indie Credibility? Yes, though a recent MTV Video Award Nomination could hurt her chances. They like them mainstream, but not too mainstream. 8/10

Chances Of Success? One of the frontrunners, for sure, but likely to be usurped by Florence And The Machine. 10/10

% Mercury Material: 82.5%

Florence And The Machine - Lungs

Is It Any Good? There’s plenty of this type of music around at the moment so it’s hard to tell. Better than Kate Nash, but probably less likely to be remembered in the future than Wheatus. Bigger production and less pretentious than Joanna Newsom, so more people will be taking note. 6/10

Do They Love This Shit? The Mercury Prize is all about over-hyped indie, as is the rest of the internet. Spreading faster online than a greased Arctic Monkey on a helter-skelter, Florence And The Machine are this year’s darlings. 9/10

Much Indie Credibility? Michael Jackson’s (un)timely death meant that Lungs was 2nd in the English charts for five weeks, earning the debut the accolade of ‘underappreciated’ from its fans. Though that may all change this week. 9/10

Chance Of Success? The certain favourites. There will be widespread surprise all around if they don’t win. 10/10

85%MM

Friendly Fires – Friendly Fires

Is It Any Good? Friendly Fires exude the kind of music that is popularly acceptable, but very of its time. Jump In The Pool is decent, On Board is terrible. Paris, former; Ex-Lover, latter.  It all ends up being a bit pedestrian. 5/10

Do They Love This Shit? This panel only loves things tinged with electronica and beats – Klaxons, Primal Scream, Portishead, Roni Size/Reprazent and Gomez all are all boastful winners with similar tics and traits on their records. 10/10

Much Indie Credibility? Despite the backing of Zane Lowe and every liberal’s favourite paper, The Guardian, their artistic integrity may be called into question by their association with Wii Fit advertising in North America. 5/10

Chances Of Winning? Meddling around the middle. Not a safe bet. 6/10

65%MM

Glasvegas – Glasvegas

Is It Any Good? The most unashasmedly scenester-pandering record of the crew, by a band who don’t think leather jackets and sunglasses have been done to death quite yet. Marinated in reverb, the goggly-eyed lamenters of yesteryear completely fell for it. 3/10

Do They Love This Shit? This sound didn’t work for Editors, who are a far more endearing act still accused of being rip-off merchants of better bands. This sort of record has been AWOL from Mercury nominations in the past. Their appearance here is a bit of a mystery. 4/10

Much Indie Credibility? Depends on whether you’re already a fan or not. If you are, you probably think they’re heroes and have long since stopped reading. If you aren’t, then you’re probably nodding your head right now. 5/10

Chances of winning? Low. 3/10

37.5%MM

Kasabian – West Ryder Pauper Lunatic Asylum

Is It Any Good? Everyone is most likely well acquainted with Kasabian right now. West Ryder Pauper Lunatic Asylum has Less hit numbers than the debut, but is miles better than the godawful Empire. 6/10

Do They Love This Shit? Kasabian haven’t been nominated for their previous albums, but their straightforward rock music is a refreshing contrast to many of the other albums on the list, even if it’s not quite as good as some of the rest. 6/10

Much Indie Credibility? NME favourites for half a decade now, music overused by Sky Sports, defiantly ‘Rule Britannia’ attitude, yet they still maintain a lot of underground chic. Maybe their ‘oohs’ and ‘aahs’ are just better than Kaiser Chiefs? 7/10

Chances of winning? Nobody considers this Kasabian’s OK Computer. 5/10

60%MM

La Roux – La Roux

Is It Any Good? La Roux don’t want to know what I think of this record. 2/10

Do They Love This Shit? Synth Pop two-pieces aren’t a favourite of the Mercury awards. Everyone was surprised at The Ting Tings’ omission from last year’s shortlist. La Roux probably won’t find too much joy this year. 5/10

Much Indie Credibility? Not a lot. Very chart friendly in what might be considered a bad way. Elly Jackson’s showbiz lineage probably doesn’t help very much either. 4/10

Chances Of Winning? Very low. 3/10

35%MM

Led Bib – Sensible Shoes

Is It Any Good? For those who are fans of crazy and controlled avant-garde, this tickles in places albums aren’t meant to tickle, like a full-on lovechild version of a John Zorn, Phil Minton and Roger Turner record. It can vary from in inexplicably pleasing to the ear to offensive to the soul. 9/10

Do They Love This Shit? No, they really, really don’t. This could be a Jamie Cullum duet album with Chan Marshall, recording during a shock therapy session while both acts simultaneously suffer epileptic attacks, produced by David Bowie and it still wouldn’t get the nod. 1/10

Much Indie Credibility? Truckloads. You’ve not heard of them before and you most likely won’t hear of them again, so they already deserve victory in the eyes of many. 10/10

Chances Of Winning? About as much chance as Bobby Robson has of winning Come Dance With Me next year. Far too weird even for an outside chance. 1/10

52.5%MM

Lisa Hannigan – Sea Sew

Is It Any Good? Ah, Lisa. Have your breathy vocal lines failed to enchant any woman, man or child on this island? As it happens, yes, but you’re the definitively Irish choice for this particular year. You’re there to fill the quota. I’m afraid the quality of your songs has precious little to do with the prize. 7/10

Do They Love This Shit? Yes. No. Maybe? It’s difficult to tell. An Irish artist is yet to win the award, so it’s not looking good for Lisa. Perhaps she can break a trend that Fionn Regan, Gemma Hayes, Therapy? and The Thrills have so far failed to do. (To completely digress, Aphex Twin has never made the shortlist). 5/10

Much Indie Credibility? Lots and more still being piled on like an increasingly-ominous Tetris tower. Walking away from Damien Rice before he went supermassive, crazy and ran laughing off to Italy with bags marked ‘loot’ in each hand certainly helped. 9/10

Chances Of Winning? Not optimistic. Though stranger things have happened, albeit not in this competition. 4/10

67.5%MM

Speech Debelle – Speech Therapy

Is It Any Good? Beats, horns, good rhymes, solid tunes, neat little package. There’s a lot to appeal to most about this record. 8/10

Do They Love This Shit? Oh yes, trawling through the Mercury history shows a hefty appreciation for this type of record – the obligatory British underground hip-hop act you’ve never heard of. 8/10

Much Indie Credibility? Speech Debelle’s girl-down-the-road voice creates a connection in the listener’s head. Much more optimistic music and lyrics than any standard London rapper, which is another step towards overall respect and household familiarity. 7/10

Chances Of Winning? Dizzee Rascal and Ms. Dynamite have shown that there’s definitely a chance for the South Londoner, even if she hasn’t gathered quite as much momentum as those two acts. Can be heartened by the fact The Streets is yet to win, despite being on two older shortlists with much more fame and acclaim. 6/10

72.5%MM

Sweet Billy Pilgrim – Twice Born Men

Is It Any Good? Lots of tender guitar strokes, ambient sound effects and oblique lyrics, echoing the spirit of former maestro Martin Grech. There’s a lot here for the casual modern listener and the girl or guy who needs to be a rabid fan of a genuinely good band. 9/10

Do They Love This Shit? The Mercury award’s specialty. A band who made it from the ground up to release a delicate and thoroughly pleasant indie album, with a strong flavour of electronica and carefully placed instrumentation. Elbow, Antony And The Johnsons and Badly Drawn Boy are the acts which, to this day, no one begrudges victory, even if one long since abandoned their early artistic depth for drunken singalongs, one released a terrible second album and one disappeared into his own hat. 8/10

Much Indie Credibility? Enough to weigh down any artist. Named after the main character in a cult novel and the new go-to band for Mojo and Uncut means Sweet Billy Pilgrim are the closest thing the award has had to truly enchanting working-class pop-rock since the mid-90s. 10/10

Chances Of Winning? The underdog’s favourites. Outsiders, but only outside the two or three most likely. 6/10

82.5%MM

The Horrors – Primary Colours

Is It Any Good? They shunned the stupid haircuts and goth video nasty chic for goth pop dance chic. They dropped the blatant image, focused on their sound and are all the better for it. Expect to hear lots of outcry when they don’t win. 8/10

Do They Love This Shit? Primal Scream have found enough joy here with one win and a further nomination. The album also touches on rhythms hit by census-approved acts such as the Chemical Brothers and Super Furry Animals, which gives it a diversity not really seen with the other contenders. 7/10

Much Indie Credibility? The world seems to have looked past their shameless initial shock tactics and embraced their actually-quite-good second LP. Not to mention getting the nod from Trent Reznor to support him on NIN’s Wave Goodbye tour this year. 7/10

Chances Of Winning? Pretty high. They’ve been getting plaudits from over, most of which began with the line “Yes, we know you hate them, but listen…” The redemption of a seemingly lost band? Who could resist that? 8/10

75%MM

The Invisible – The Invisible

Is It Any Good? Jazz-fusion act loved by other famous acts and produced by Matthew “Is he God, or is he just playing with a couple of bottles onstage?” Herbert. Undeniably the funkiest album you’re likely to hear out of the nominees. 7/10

Do They Love This Shit? Friends of friends are everything in the music industry, and this is more than likely the reason The Invisible shows his head around here, but when the music is this enjoyable, it shouldn’t count for much. Unfortunately for Dave Okumu and his mates, it’s probably not enough to sway the Mercury panel. This year’s Burial. 3/10

Much Indie Credibility? A fair amount, buoyed by a feeling of “Yeah I know I’ve not heard of them, but really, who are they?” An unlikely Mercury win could have the inverse of its usual effect and increase this. 6/10

Chances Of Winning? Middling. Expect some quiet dissent on some internet forum somewhere if they don’t get it. Expect lots of outraged dissent on Sky News if they do. 5/10

52.5%MM

May the best band scoop it.

Tags: Bat For Lashes, Florence and The Machine, friendly fires, glasvegas, kasabian, La Roux, Led Bib, Lisa Hannigan, Lungs, Mercury Music Prize, Primary Colours, Sea Sew, Sensible Shoes, Speech Debelle, Speech Therapy, Sweet Billy Pilgrim, the horrors, The Invisible, Twice Born Men, Two Suns, West Ryder Pauper Lunatic Asylum